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Crowds Believe in You: Online Prediction Markets Overestimate How Often People Achieve Their Own Goals
computers-and-societyeconomicsgeneral-economicshuman-computer-interactionj-4social-and-information-networks
People increasingly share personal goals online and invite others to forecast them. Research on the planning fallacy finds that observers predict a person's behavior less optimistically than the person does, and prediction markets aggregate such judgments, harnessing the wisdom of crowds. We study 6
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