The ‘This Universe Objection’ Proves Too Much

Arguments particularly from Alan Olding, Roger White and Paul Draper have sought to establish that the apparent fine-tuning of the universe cannot be explained by positing a multiverse, because this would not explain why this universe is fine-tuned. The supposed fallacy at play is a weakening of the evidence from "this universe is fine-tuned" to "some universe is fine-tuned" (the “This Universe Objection” or TUO). By drawing on an analysis of diverse issues central to the TUO dialectic -- including the Requirement of Total Evidence, screening-off effects, observer selection, and lack of consensus on the correct handling of identity and indexicality within Bayesian frameworks, this paper will argue that TUO cannot be correct because it not only invalidates the inference to a multiverse from fine-tuning but a wide range of other widely accepted anthropic explanations, effectively reducing them to attributions to chance. The resulting improbability of our observations can be used to justify radical or even absurd conclusions and so cast doubt on this already controversial style of reasoning. It concludes with a discussion of where and how the objection may have gone wrong.