Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds

[2412.13855] Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds Skip to main content Search Submit Donate Log in Search arXiv Press Enter to search · Advanced search Statistics > Applications arXiv:2412.13855 (stat) [Submitted on 18 Dec 2024] Title: Breaching 1.5°C: Give me the odds Authors: J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés , Olivia Kvist View a PDF of the paper titled Breaching 1.5{\deg}C: Give me the odds, by J. Eduardo Vera-Vald\'es and Olivia Kvist View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract: Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate scientists should move away from point estimates and towards reporting probabilities. Reporting probabilities will provide policymakers with a range of possible outcomes and will allow them to make informed timely decisions. To achieve this goal, we propose a method to calculate the probability of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement. The method can be summarized as predicting future temperatures under different scenarios and calculating the number of possible outcomes that breach the limits as a proportion of the total number of outcomes. The probabilities can be computed for different time horizons and can be updated as new data become available. As an illustration, we performed a simulation study to investigate the probability of breaching the limits in a statistical model. Our results show that the probability of breaching the 1.5°C limit is already greater than zero for 2024. Moreover, the probability of breaching the limit is greater than 99% by 2042 if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Our methodology is simple to implement and can easily be extended to more complex models of the climate system. We encourage climate model developers to include the probabilities of breaching the limits in their reports. Subjects: Applications (stat.AP) ; Methodology (stat.ME) Cite as: arXiv:2412.13855 [stat.AP] (or arXiv:2412.13855v1 [stat.AP] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.13855 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Related DOI : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2026.07.004 Focus to learn more DOI(s) linking to related resources Submission history From: J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés [ view email ] [v1] Wed, 18 Dec 2024 13:51:46 UTC (490 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Breaching 1.5{\deg}C: Give me the odds, by J. Eduardo Vera-Vald\'es and Olivia Kvist View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: stat.AP < prev | next > new | recent | 2024-12 Change to browse by: stat stat.ME References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar export BibTeX citation Loading... BibTeX formatted citation × loading... Data provided by: Bookmark Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? ) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? ) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? ) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? ) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? ) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? ) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? ) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? ) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? ) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? ) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate ( What is Replicate? ) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? ) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? ) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? ) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? ) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs . Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? ) We gratefully acknowledge support from our major funders , member institutions , , and all contributors. About · Help · Contact · Subscribe · Copyright · Privacy · Accessibility · Operational Status (opens in new tab) Major funding support from

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