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The Endogeneity of Miscalibration: Impossibility and Escape in Scored Reporting
artificial-intelligencecomputer-science-and-game-theoryj-4multiagent-systemsoptimization-and-controltheoretical-economics
An agent's probability report is paid for twice: by a strictly proper scoring rule, and by an approval rule for the decision it triggers. In this classical decision-coupled setting, non-affine approval is known to defeat truthful reporting. We show the conflict is endogenous: when feasible, the welf
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