No Support Beyond Reach: The Measure Centrality Index 2.0 and Adversarial Comparisons of Consciousness Theories

A success in adversarial testing of scientific theories reaches only as deep as its matching failure would have cut. I call this the Reach Principle, and the goal of this chapter is to build the instrument that enforces it. Adversarial tests of consciousness theories can turn into a one-way evidential ratchet. When a preregistered prediction passes, the success is claimed for the research program; when it fails, the failure lands on an auxiliary involved in measurement or implementation. The ratchet turns wherever attribution is settled after the outcome is known. Against it, I define a preregisterable test object, putting the attribution policy on the record before the result, comprising what is compared, under which assumptions, when data suffice to settle an outcome, and which targets of a dated theory version each outcome exposes. The Measure Centrality Index 2.0 extends the original version to the positive-evidence side, recording for every possible outcome what it would count against and what its proponent has agreed to change. I run the framework on Cogitate’s third prediction, where the preregistered target was the posterior-connectivity implementation and the mathematical or computational core of both Global Neuronal Workspace Theory and Integrated Information Theory stood outside the test. The record shows that a pass could have been claimed at any depth, because nothing fenced success the way the failure was bound. The next preregistration can set reach in advance, and support for a theory then reaches only what was exposed ex ante.